Updates
Analytical articles on prediction markets, geopolitical forecasting, early warning signs, and global conflict risk analysis.
10 Early Warning Signs of War Between Countries
Analysts monitor a set of recurring indicators that often appear before international conflicts escalate. Learn the key early warning signs of war between countries.
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Military Buildup Indicators That Often Appear Before War
Troop deployments, exercises, and defense spending are among the strongest signals analysts use to assess conflict probability. Learn which military buildup indicators often appear before war.
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Global Conflict Risk Index: Countries Most Likely to Face Conflict
A structured view of geopolitical risk by region. Which countries and regions analysts rank as most likely to face conflict, and what drives those assessments.
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How Prediction Markets Forecast Wars
Prediction markets let participants trade on the probability of future events, including conflict. How they work, what they capture, and how analysts use them alongside other tools.
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When Will a Ceasefire Happen in the US–Israel–Iran War?
Prediction markets and conflict indicators offer one lens on when a ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran could emerge—and what signals might warn that negotiations are stalling.
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Prediction Markets Estimate Probability of U.S.–Cuba Conflict
How prediction markets are pricing the probability of a U.S.–Cuba conflict, and how analysts interpret those signals alongside traditional early warning indicators.
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When Will the US–Israel–Iran War End?
How analysts think about timelines for ending a major conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran—and which signals might indicate that negotiations are moving from ceasefire talks toward a broader settlement.
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How Much Money Has Been Bet on the U.S.–Israel–Iran War?
How much capital traders have staked on the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict across major prediction platforms, and what this activity reveals about expectations and risk.
Read MoreLatest Update: Is the U.S. Preparing to Attack Cuba? Signals Analysts Are Watching
Rising U.S.–Cuba tensions have analysts monitoring military posture, rhetoric, and diplomatic signals. Here are the indicators forecasters are watching and what they mean for conflict probability.
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